Super Bowl Betting – Pro Bettor Stan Simmons Examines the Super Bowl Bets
The Super Bowl odds have been up for nearly two weeksand with the fame finally approaching, it’s time to lay down the action. We sawthe line open 3.5 and climbed all the way until 5.5, but with lots ofspeculation in regards to Indianapolis Colts defensive end Dwight Freeney’sstatus, the line has dropped to 4.5. Here are my picks for the game:
Super Bowl Betting Picks:
Pick #1: Colts -220
The first sentiment is usually the right sentiment, which iswhy the Colts -3.5 is the first pick. After watching the New Orleans Saintsreceive five gift turnovers from the Minnesota Vikings in the Championship Gameand then barely winning by three points in overtime, the original sentiment isthat the Saints can’t play with the Colts.
Granted, two weeks to prepare likely benefits New Orleansmore than it does Indy, since Indy has been here before, but NFLbetting cappers have to understand that any team with two weeks to prepareis dangerous. That is why the play is on the moneyline instead of the spread.
But the Colts have the experience and that will be the mainfactor. That and the fact that no team has beat them this year when they haveplayed their starters the entire way through.
Pick #2: Colts +10.5-1400
Onlinebetting cappers know that the Super Bowl presents all sorts of differentlines and this one is too enticing to pass up. When handicapping this game andchatting around the water cooler, the question came up: when is the last timethe Colts lost by 11 when playing their starters?
You’d have to go all the way back to Week 6 of last year tofind their last loss by 11 or more and as bettors will recall, the Colts had aslow start because Peyton Manning (knee) wasn’t healthy to start the 2008-09season.
In 2007, the Colts lost four times including their playoffloss by San Diego and no loss was bigger than six points. The Colts hardly everget blown out and while the juice is extremely high, you are paying for safetyhere.
Pick #3: Over 1Combined Missed Field Goals +350
Call this more of a hunch, but there is a strong belief herethat Saints kicker Garrett Hartley misses at least a field goal in this game.He’s only had 25 field goal attempts in his entire NFL career and you have tofigure that he’ll be nervous.
Granted, when you do the math, he’s only had 25 attempts intwo years, which boils down to less than one attempt per game. Even so, thisfigures to be a high-scoring contest and if he misses one, you get the push,and if you get another miss – either a long field goal try at the end of thehalf or any other type of miss – you hit the over. The belief here is therewill be one miss with a shot at two. +350 from the sportsbook isworth the shot.
For most NFLbetting articles and analysis from Stan Simmons, check back in the BettingEdge regularly.
